Article & Journal Resources: What $100 Oil Means

Article & Journal Resources

What $100 Oil Means

Oil briefly touched $100 in Nymex trading Wednesday - and the sharp rise over the past year has caught economists, commodity traders and even seasoned energy executives flatfooted.

Looking back, several factors came together at the same time to help oil shoot up roughly tenfold in less than a decade and briefly touch $100 today. Those factors are likely to stick around, perhaps pushing prices up further.

Adding more volatility, oil is increasingly traded as an investment by financial players with little interest in owning the barrels. After years of internal friction, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has been more disciplined about keeping global inventories lean and prices buoyant.

The world's ability to pump enough oil is being tested. "Demand has surged ahead and the industry has been playing an intense game of catch up," says Daniel Yergin, chairman of Cambridge Energy Research Associates.

High oil prices also test the progress made by many of the world's industrialized economies toward greater energy efficiency since the oil shocks of the 1970s and early 1980s. In the U.S., which remains the most oil-dependent industrialized nation, oil at $100 would threaten consumer spending, and the impact could ripple through other economies.

Asia's rapidly developing nations have flush cash reserves to continue subsidizing fuel for its population. But China's 10% rise in government-controlled fuel prices shows higher oil costs are putting a greater strain on Asian nations. Also, China in particular is heavily dependent on consumer spending in the U.S. Should higher fuel prices curb U.S. consumer spending, China -- the U.S.'s factory floor -- would suffer.

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