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By Jeff Bliss and Ken Fireman

Dec. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Iran suspended its nuclear weapons program in 2003 and probably can't produce enough uranium for a bomb until 2010 at the earliest, according to a new report from the U.S. intelligence community.

The Iranians halted the program ``primarily in response to international pressure,'' and this decision ``suggests Iran may be more vulnerable to influence on the issue than we judged previously,'' the intelligence agencies said.

If Iran were to restart its program, it would not have enough material for a bomb until between 2010 and 2015, according to the National Intelligence Estimate, which is the consensus view of the 16 U.S. intelligence agencies.

``Tehran's decision to halt its nuclear weapons program suggests it is less determined to develop nuclear weapons than we have been judging since 2005,'' according to the report's key judgments, which the Office of the Director of National Intelligence Michael McConnell released to the media today.

The agencies said they lack ``sufficient intelligence to judge confidently'' how long Iran will suspend its nuclear weapons program, but Iran's decisions appear to be ``guided by a cost-benefit approach rather than a rush to a weapon irrespective of the political, economic, and military costs.''

As of the middle of this year, Iran hadn't restarted the program, according to the agencies.

Still, the agencies said it would be ``difficult'' to prevent Iran from eventually developing nuclear weapons because the country's leaders believe this goal is important to their national security.

Reversal of Judgment

The report represents a reversal of the intelligence community's judgment in 2005, when it concluded ``with high confidence that Iran is determined to develop nuclear weapons despite its international obligations and international pressure.''

President George W. Bush was kept abreast of the changing analysis of the spy agencies, which have been sifting new information for three months, senior intelligence officials told reporters in Washington today. He received the key judgments on Nov. 28, a day after senior leaders at the agencies approved them.

`World War III'

The Bush administration for months has condemned what it has insisted was an Iranian drive to build a nuclear weapon.

Bush on Oct. 17 warned that even allowing Iran to acquire the knowledge necessary for a nuclear weapon risked ``World War III.'' Vice President Dick Cheney said on Oct. 21 that if Iran ``stays on its present course, the international community is prepared to impose serious consequences.''

White House National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley denied Bush was exaggerating the threat on Oct. 17.

``He was describing the threat as the intelligence community itself had been describing the threat both publicly and in their briefings to him,'' Hadley told reporters at a briefing.

The president ``was trying to give a wake-up call to the international community that we need to step up diplomacy, step up the pressure,'' he said, adding that message wouldn't change.

When first briefed on the new information, the president ``was not told to stop talking about Iran's nuclear weapons program,'' Hadley said. He said he didn't know whether Bush was given an early indication of the changing analysis before or after his ``World War III'' comment.

Premise `Evaporated'

Joseph Cirincione, an arms control expert with the Center for American Progress in Washington, said the new report would undermine the position of those advocating military action to halt Iran's nuclear program and may also damage the Bush administration's drive for tougher United Nations sanctions.

``The White House effort for years has been premised on the notion that there was a secret nuclear program,'' Cirincione said. ``The NIE report says there wasn't. The belief that we could expose this program and win international support for either crushing sanctions or military strikes has now evaporated.''

The new information stems from a recent added emphasis on Iran and includes data from publicly available sources, the senior intelligence officials said. For instance, the Iranians allowed the media to tour and take pictures of the Natanz nuclear facility, adding to the agencies' knowledge of the operations there, the officials said.

In addition to international pressure, the decision by Libya to abandon its atomic-weapon plans and the collapse of the A.Q. Khan network, which was selling Pakistan's nuclear technology abroad, may have played a role in Iran's decision to halt its program, the officials said.

Russian Reaction

The Russian ambassador to the United Nations, Vitaly Churkin, whose government has opposed stiffer sanctions, quickly trumpeted the new report as a vindication.

``We have always been saying there is no proof they are pursuing nuclear weapons,'' Churkin told reporters. He said he didn't know what impact the report would have on the U.S. bid for new sanctions.

Hadley said the new intelligence estimate ``offers grounds for hope that the problem can be solved diplomatically.''

The report ``suggests that the president has the right strategy -- intensified international pressure along with a willingness to negotiate a solution,'' he said in an e-mailed statement.

The report noted Iran was continuing its effort to produce enriched uranium, a conclusion shared by the UN's nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency. In a Nov. 15 report, the IAEA said its ability to gain knowledge about Iran's nuclear activities was diminishing because of reduced Iranian cooperation.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jeff Bliss in Washington at jbliss@bloomberg.net ; Robin Stringer in London at rstringer@bloomberg.net .